AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn

Corn futures closed the Tuesday session with 3/4 to 1 1/4 cent losses, despite showing 3-4 cent gains post report. The USDA announced another private export sale of 152,000 MT of corn to Mexico for 17/18 delivery this morning. The USDA updated the US ending stocks estimate to 2.437 bbu, a 50 mbu tightening from November and below most expectations. That came from higher ethanol usage, as production was left unchanged. The world ending stocks were increased 0.22 MMT to 204.08 MMT. That was mostly from larger carry over from 16/17. Production for Brazil was left unchanged at 95 MMT by the USDA, although CONAB now estimates the crop at 92.2 MMT.

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.35 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.47 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.56, down 1 1/4 cents

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.64 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures settled Tuesday with 4 1/4 to 7 cent losses, as prices weakened into the close from 3-4 cent gains earlier. December meal was down $3.10/ton, with nearby bean oil 4 points lower. A private export sale of 168,000 MT to Unknown Destinations was announced for 17/18 delivery by the USDA this morning. This morning’s USDA Supply and Demand report showed US soybean ending stocks 20 mbu larger than November. Most of that increase was from a reduction in the US export projection by 25 mbu, with seed usage raised 5 mbu. On the World side, both Argentina and Brazil production was left alone at 57 MMT and 108 MMT, while CONAB now sees the Brazilian crop at 109.2 MMT. The USDA added 0.42 MMT to the world ending stocks number to 98.32 MMT due to larger beginning stocks and a reduction in crush.

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.75 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.87 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.98 1/4, down 7 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.09 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal closed at $322.90, down $3.10,

Dec 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.36, down $0.04

Wheat

Wheat futures were mostly 1 to 3 cents lower at Tuesday’s close, with the soon to expire Dec contracts showing thin trade. The USDA reported 120,000 MT of HRW wheat was sold to Algeria for 17/18 delivery through their daily export sale reporting system. The December WASDE report showed an increase of 25 mbu to the US ending stocks estimate for wheat to 960 mbu, larger than most analysts’ expectations. There was a 25 mbu reduction to the export total. The world ending stocks number went against expectations, and was raised 0.89 MMT to 268.42 MMT. Canadian production was increased 3 MMT, with Russian exports up 0.5 MMT. Egypt’s GASC purchased 295,000 MT of Russian and Romanian wheat on Tuesday, with just 1 cargo from Romania and the rest Russian. Japan’s MOA is seeking 147,696 MT in Australia, Canada, and US wheat, with 95,366 MT from the US. The tender will close Thursday.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.87 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.94, down 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.96 3/4, unch,

Cattle

Live cattle futures finished the Tuesday session with most contracts 80 cents to $1.425 higher. Feeder cattle futures were $1.65 to $2.225 higher in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index on December 11 was down 43 cents to $153.89. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday afternoon. Choice was down $1.47 at $204.06, with select 26 cents higher at $185.92. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 236,000 head through Tuesday, 3,000 head fewer than the previous week but 6,000 head larger than the same week last year. The FCE has 704 head of cattle listed for Wednesday morning’s online auction. The USDA trimmed estimated fourth quarter beef production by 95 million pounds to 6.87 million billion pounds. The 4Q figure is still the largest in at least 14 years. Production for 2018 was cut 30 million pounds to 27.59 billion pounds.

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $116.150, up $0.975,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $119.150, up $1.425,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $120.975, up $1.350,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.100, up $1.650

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.300, up $1.975

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.325, up $1.875

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the day 15 cents higher in the nearby Dec contract, as the rest of the back months were 20 to 65 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 12/8 was down 31 cents to $65.17. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 57 cents at $81.12 in the Tuesday afternoon report. The belly was reported at $11.46 lower, with the other cuts higher. The national base hog price was 72 cents lower at $58.15 this afternoon. The WCB was down 94 cents, with the IA/MN region 98 cents lower. The USDA daily FI hog slaughter was 932,000 head WTD through Tuesday. That was up 1,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head more than the same week last year. The USDA updated the pork production table this morning, trimming 180 million pounds off the fourth quarter production to 6.775 billion pounds. They also lowered 2018 production 10 million pounds to 26.915 billion pounds.

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $63.750, up $0.150,

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $66.525, down $0.500

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $71.175, down $0.650

Cotton

Cotton futures saw 8 to 37 point losses on Tuesday, despite a supportive USDA report. The US dollar held back gains going into close at it was up 220 points. The USDA Cotton Ginnings report shows that as of December 1, 11.335 million RB had been ginned in the US. That was nearly 10% larger than this time last year and an increase of 3.408 million RB over the mid-November report. The USDA raised the US production number slightly to 21.44 million bales, on a 2 lb increase in yield to 902 lbs/ac. The US ending stocks number was lowered 0.3 million bales, as exports were raised by that amount. The world ending stocks number was trimmed 2.88 million bales to 88 million bales. Production in India was trimmed 0.5 MMT, as Pakistan was down 0.95 MMT.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 72.910, down 9 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 73.500, down 8 points

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 72.420, down 22 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com