Valued at a market capitalization of over $3 trillion, Nvidia (NVDA) is a semiconductor giant that continues to grow at a robust pace thanks to its dominance of the artificial intelligence megatrend. 

Moreover, Nvidia also benefits from strong demand from global markets such as China, which allowed it to increase its sales from $26.9 billion in fiscal 2023 (ended in January) to $130.5 billion in fiscal 2025. 

However, in Q1 of its fiscal 2026 Nvidia suffered substantial losses in China as U.S. export controls severely disrupted its operations. Nvidia originally designed its H20 chip around U.S. export restrictions, allowing it to maintain and grow its sales in China. Despite this, in April 2025, President Donald Trump levied new restrictions banning Nvidia from exporting the H20 to China. As a result, the company was unable to ship $2.5 billion worth of H20 GPUs in the April quarter. The chipmaker did recognize $4.6 billion in H20 revenue but faced licensing restrictions that prevented actual product delivery. 

Will Nvidia Benefit from Easing Trade Tensions?

These new trade restrictions resulted in a multibillion-dollar inventory write-off for products that could not be sold or repurposed. This represents a significant blow to Nvidia’s operations in a country that was previously a major revenue contributor.

China’s data center revenue contribution has shown a consistent decline across recent quarters. While Q2 and Q3 of fiscal 2025 experienced sequential growth through export-compliant products, revenue levels remained below those of pre-restriction periods. By Q4, China’s contribution had fallen to historically low levels, with Nvidia projecting further “meaningful decreases” ahead.

The broader implications are staggering. The $50 billion AI market in China is now effectively closed to U.S. companies, with domestic competitors like Huawei capturing market share previously held by Nvidia.

However, potential relief may be on the horizon. Wedbush Securities suggests the H20 ban could become a focal point in upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations. Analysts expect export controls might be loosened given China’s advancing AI capabilities. The current restrictions essentially hand Nvidia’s Chinese business to competitors, making chip access crucial for Chinese tech companies as AI development accelerates.

Nvidia Continues to Expand Its Portfolio

Nvidia is aggressively expanding its AI portfolio across multiple verticals, positioning itself as the dominant force in enterprise AI transformation. Its latest initiatives span telecommunications, autonomous vehicles, and industrial manufacturing, which showcase the breadth of its AI platform strategy.

In telecommunications, Nvidia unveiled its first AI Blueprint for network configuration at GTC Paris, targeting the industry’s $295 billion in annual capital expenditures. The solution uses customized large language models to automate network optimization processes that traditionally required manual intervention. Major partners, including Telenor Group (TELNY), NTT DATA (NTDTY), and Tata Consultancy Services, are deploying these agentic AI solutions, with efficiency improvements reaching up to 40%.

For autonomous vehicles, Nvidia released Cosmos Predict-2, an enhanced world foundation model that generates high-quality synthetic training data. The platform addresses the critical need for physically based sensor data as AV architectures evolve toward unified, end-to-end systems. 

Nvidia’s industrial AI initiatives include Germany’s first industrial AI cloud, featuring 10,000 Blackwell GPUs operated by Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY). The deployment represents Germany’s most significant investment in AI infrastructure, positioning Nvidia as the backbone of Europe’s AI transformation.

What Is the Target Price for NVDA Stock?

Analysts tracking NVDA stock expect its sales to rise from $130.5 billion in fiscal 2025 to $322.77 billion in fiscal 2029. Comparatively, adjusted earnings are forecast to increase from $2.99 per share to $7.31 per share in this period. 

Out of the 44 analysts covering NVDA stock, 37 recommend “Strong Buy,” three recommend “Moderate Buy,” three recommend “Hold,” and one recommends “Strong Sell.” The average target price for NVDA stock is $174, 20% above its current price.